In our latest report, Wassim Maktabi, Sami Zoughaib, Sami Atallah, and Najib Zoghaib scrutinize Lebanon's governance challenges. They examine both the state's unmet reform promises and its actual legislative actions and highlight how misaligned priorities and narrow interests continue to hinder progressive policymaking.

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TPI was cited at AGBI, covering our article "Economic Impact of the War in Lebanon: Real and potential losses". Read more

TPI published an estimate of the losses and other potential future costs suffered by Lebanon as a result of the war spillover into south Lebanon. Read more

The war in Lebanon triggered by Israel’s onslaught on Gaza, risks further escalation threatening the country’s already crumbling economy. Since October 8, 2023, Israel launched 2,600 strikes on Lebanon, within 10 km of its southern border, affecting the country’s vital foreign capital inflow. Our latest article by Sami Zoughaib, Wassim Maktabi, and Sami Atallah provides insights into the war's economic implications. With the cost of war so high, it is imperative is for the international community actors to push for an immediate stop to the Israeli war on Gaza, which would not only offer a pathway to reducing tensions but also mitigate the increasing humanitarian and economic losses across the region. Read more

مقال لسامي زغيب ووسيم مكتبي Read more

The 2024 budget draft in Lebanon is making headlines. The budget is set to break a two-decade-long trend by being ratified without violating the budget calendar. The finance and budget committee transformed a fiscal deficit into a surplus mainly through accounting gimmicks. However, if Parliament fails to ratify the budget by January 31, the cabinet's version, which also lacks reforms and diverges from standard financial practices, will be implemented. With the Parliament discussions reported to be very heated, the country is facing a dilemma as neither version of the budget serves the people, yet one must be adopted. Read more

As Lebanon enters its fifth year of the crisis, the labor market has become increasingly precarious. Irregular jobs are the new norm and are functioning as an informal safety net among the country’s remaining labor force. Widespread wage reductions and inadequate social protection have rendered the labor market increasingly informal and low-skilled. A normalization of this arrangement can carry reverberations that sever the role of the state in the social contract. Read more

Lebanon's 2024 draft budget reflects persisting fiscal mismanagement, signaling ongoing concerns for economic recovery and social stability. The budget heavily relies on VAT, disproportionately burdening the less affluent, adding strain on small and medium enterprises, and favoring the interests of the wealthy. Despite proposed budget increases, essential service ministries, such as public health, education, and social affairs, remain underfunded, threatening societal well-being.

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Our report with Towards_Fairwork Lebanon rates working conditions at 6 of the biggest platforms in the country's food delivery and ride-hailing sectors: Bolt, Gozilla, Indrive, TaxiF, Toters, and Uber. The report constitutes the first in-depth overview of working conditions in Lebanon’s platform economy, in a country battling multiple crises. None of the platforms assessed in this year’s study were granted any points for the five principles of fair work.

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Lebanon's 2023 budget draft minimizes the tax burden on those with capital and wealth, forcing the low and middle-income classes to foot the bill. In our latest article, we examine the revenue structure of Lebanon's overdue 2023 budget draft and find it to be consistent with previous years of relying heavily on regressive taxation, which is threatening the state’s overall fiscal capacity. Read more

In our latest article, we examine the poorly designed expenditure structure in Lebanon's 2023 Draft Budget. The analysis reveals how the significant delays in budget preparation have made it obsolete, and the shrinking budget size, which has plummeted even more than the economy during the ongoing crisis. The article also highlights the disproportionate allocation of resources, primarily in favor of sovereign ministries over crucial service-oriented ones, and the prevalence of personnel costs in the budget, despite being insufficient. These findings underscore the pressing need for fiscal reform and a more responsible approach to public spending in Lebanon.

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As a key recipient of international aid, Lebanon is no stranger to pledging reforms. In fact, its ruling political class are experts in promising reforms but not in delivering them. Read more

In our most recent report, Georgia Dagher, Sami Atallah, Wassim Maktabi, and Zeina Helou highlight deficiencies in the electoral system and political candidates’ strategies that hampered the competitiveness and fairness of the electoral race.  
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Sami Zoughaib and Wassim Maktabi examine how BdL was effectively “subcontracted” as a social assistance provider through an ill-conceived exchange rate subsidy operation that depleted its foreign reserves and regressively benefited large importers and wealthier cash holders. Meanwhile, a fraction of the amount depleted could have funded a social protection floor estimated to cost around $500 million annually. Read more

Wassim Maktabi, Sami Zoughaib, and Sami Atallah investigate how the delay in the ESSN was linked to attempts of the political class to capture the program, played off as “administrative blunders”. Read more

In our latest article on the Lebanese parliamentary elections, Wassim Maktabi looks at how Lebanon’s political elites controlled the state’s policy attention in the run-up to the elections. Read more

Mounir Mahmalat and Wassim Maktabi study cartels in public infrastructure procurement and analyze the conditions under which they succeed in generating rents Read more

Mounir Mahmalat and Wassim Maktabi share the findings on how political elites use public infrastructure procurement to generate rents with a focus on design and supervision consultants involved in several of The Council of Development and Reconstruction's projects

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Cynthia Saghir and Wassim Maktabi echo the need for a rights-based social protection system bound by an orderly fiscal framework Read more

In light of the country’s accumulating crises, the importance of adopting the National Social Protection Strategy (NSPS), the grounds for a rights-based social protection system, has become crucial.  Read more

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The authors take a closer look at the value of advertisement slots that banks purchased on a yearly basis and their implications  Read more

The authors assess the “response” of government, parliament, central bank, and the judiciary to the financial crisis Read more

TPI’s Sami Zoughaib and Wassim Maktabi offer a reading of the current trajectory of the financial crisis and its outlook in light of recent political developments.

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Our research on how municipalities have interacted with the IMPACT platform shows that some had frequented forms that carried short-term incentives over others that did not, leaving an inconsistent interaction with the platform. Read more

Traditional political parties controlling municipalities submit, on average, significantly more aid applications relative to their populations than family-run or independent municipalities. Read more

Transparency is an important part of governance as it allows citizens to hold their elected local governments accountable. Our research shows that in Lebanon, membership in union of municipalities seem to shape municipalities’ transparency more than other factors. Read more

Encouraging and building on a culture of transparency within public administrations therefore should be a first step to improve governance and restore people's trust in the State. Read more

Data on the submissions of aid applications through the IMPACT platform provides empirical evidence of how political parties attempt to exploit this situation. Read more

Lebanon’s current decentralization system offers important opportunities for local governments to take over a leadership role for the improvement of services, infrastructure, and people’s welfare. Read more

Out of the country’s 1,002 municipalities, only 17 received the full score and showed near full transparency and regular interaction with the IMPACT platform. Read more

Neighboring municipalities exchange information and seem to influence each other in their usage of the IMPACT platform. Read more

A month of voting won’t fix a thousand broken councils—Lebanon’s municipal elections will matter only after the municipalities themselves are radically transformed. Read more

Lebanon's economic crisis has severely eroded public sector wages, pushing many civil servants into income vulnerability and weakening public institutions. In this report, Sami Zoughaib, Sami Atallah, and Najib Zoghaib analyze the wage crisis and propose a clear pathway toward reform and recovery. They highlight how political elites have avoided structural reforms, resorting instead to temporary fixes that exacerbate inequalities, and how international aid, despite providing crucial short-term relief, increases dependency and undermines national sovereignty. Read more

In our latest article, Sami Atallah and Sami Zoughaib argue that Karim Soueid’s appointment reflects elite consensus to block reform and protect banking interests, ending the president’s reform promises just two months into his mandate.

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Despite a unique opportunity to chart a new course, Lebanon’s ministerial statement lacks a clear economic vision, sidesteps accountability, and prioritizes political balancing over substantive policy commitments. With the country in deep crisis, this approach risks reinforcing stagnation rather than driving much-needed change. Read more

Lebanon’s political establishment often touts ministerial rotation, factional exclusion, and the appointment of technocrats as the keys to reform. Are these proposed solutions genuine—or merely cosmetic gestures that uphold systemic corruption? Our latest article provides a critical examination of these narratives and details the deeper institutional changes needed to address Lebanon’s entrenched crisis.

Read more

Lebanon’s newly elected President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam bring a glimmer of hope to a nation reeling from crises. But can they overcome entrenched political resistance and institutional decay to deliver meaningful reforms? Our latest analysis dives into the challenges ahead, the forces behind their rise, and what’s at stake for Lebanon’s future.

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This episode of Barra El Box features Sami Zoughaib, Research Manager at The Policy Initiative (TPI), who provides a comprehensive analysis of Lebanon’s systemic challenges, shedding light on the urgent need for accountability, strategic governance, and sustainable development. Listen

Interview with Sami Zoughaib. Read more

Interview with Sami Zoughaib. Read more

Interview with Sami Zoughaib. Read more

The Policy Initiative's Sami Zoghaib tells @SkyYaldaHakim that Hezbollah have been able to "regroup" despite sustaining " a significant blow" from Israel. Read more

The massive attack on Hezbollah's communication equipment spread death and terror in Beirut. “This is like a dystopian horror movie where we are the actors,” says Lebanese economist Sami Zoughaib. Read more

Sami Zoughaib discusses the preparedness of the Lebanese state for a potential war with Israel.

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In this article, Sami Zoughaib and Sami Atallah delve into the critical fiscal reforms necessary for Lebanon's National Social Protection Strategy (NSPS), which was launched in February 2024.  Read more

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Sami Zoughaib was interviewed by The New Arab. Read more

مقابلة مع سامي زغيب Read more

Sami Zoughaib was interviewed by l'Orient Today. Read more

As Lebanon's Parliament votes on the 2024 budget, glaring tax inequities take center stage. This article by Sami Zoughaib and Georgia Dagher reveals how the proposed taxes disproportionately burden lower-income groups, while sparing wealthier segments. We explore three critical areas - real estate, imports, and debt settlements - where tax loopholes have led to staggering revenue losses and exacerbated wealth disparities. Urgent reforms are needed for a fairer, more equitable tax system.

Read more

Sami Zoughaib was interviewed by Middle East Eye. Read more

War spillover hampers Lebanon's tepid economic growth, while inflation remains in triple digits. Read more

In partnership with Sami Kassir Foundation, our recent report exposes Lebanon's media reliance on elites for funding, hence shaping the public narrative. Across TV stations, radio outlets, and print sources, we unveil how the support of political groups fuels polarization and distorts public opinion. Analyzing costs, revenues, and informal funds, our study emphasizes the media's dependence on politically motivated backing. 

Read more

In a collaborative effort by Sam Heller, Century International, Sami Zoughaib, The Policy Initiative, our latest report, which draws upon interviews with Lebanese officials, politicians, civil society leaders, and representatives of donor countries and international institutions, highlights the critical role of public pressure in compelling elites to act responsibly and holding them accountable. Lebanon's economic collapse can only be stopped with an urgent IMF program and comprehensive reforms. However, IMF talks have stalled primarily due to a disconnect between the country's weak negotiating team and its hegemonic anti-reform political elites. Disinformation has further exacerbated the situation, distorting political discourse and misleading the public. Instead of working with the IMF to implement the needed reforms, the country's political elites are pursuing a clandestine “shadow” plan. This plan would shift the economic burden onto the Lebanese people, leading to widespread suffering.

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The authors latest article in the series on Lebanon’s history of foreign assistance, analyzes the distribution of international assistance to Lebanon by donor and sector.

 

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The authors examine how Lebanon's development aid has changed over five distinct periods since 1990.They find that aid patterns reflect both external dynamics, such as regional conflicts and global crises, and internal dynamics, such as domestic politics and governance capacity. Read more

Sami Zoughaib discusses detrimental effects of the current social protection landscape on the social contract in Lebanon. Read more

This article investigates the effect of ministerial rotations on legislative output. Read more

Sami Zoughaib and Cynthia Saghir explore Lebanon’s fragmented and ineffective social insurance system Read more

Sami Atallah and Sami Zoughaib take a closer look at Lebanon’s 2022 budget, which has been passed last week, more than halfway into the year. 
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Hussein Cheaito and Sami Zoughaib take a closer look at the two major sources of foreign capital - remittances and tourism revenues - and how they have contributed to further inequality and non-investment in Lebanon, as the country sinks deeper into the financial and economic crisis Read more

Georgia Dagher and Sami Zoughaib dive deeper into Lebanon's social crisis and the ways forward.  Read more

A month of voting won’t fix a thousand broken councils—Lebanon’s municipal elections will matter only after the municipalities themselves are radically transformed. Read more

Lebanon's economic crisis has severely eroded public sector wages, pushing many civil servants into income vulnerability and weakening public institutions. In this report, Sami Zoughaib, Sami Atallah, and Najib Zoghaib analyze the wage crisis and propose a clear pathway toward reform and recovery. They highlight how political elites have avoided structural reforms, resorting instead to temporary fixes that exacerbate inequalities, and how international aid, despite providing crucial short-term relief, increases dependency and undermines national sovereignty. Read more

In our latest article, Sami Atallah and Sami Zoughaib argue that Karim Soueid’s appointment reflects elite consensus to block reform and protect banking interests, ending the president’s reform promises just two months into his mandate.

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In this statement, we call on the Lebanese government to appoint a competent, untainted Central Bank governor. This is a defining test for the new executive—one that will reveal its commitment to integrity, reform, and breaking with the failures of the past. Read more

A joint statement signed by more than fifty parliamentary, media, human rights, and political entities, confronting the systematic campaign led by some bankers and their powerful allies aiming to cement their impunity. Read more

Despite a unique opportunity to chart a new course, Lebanon’s ministerial statement lacks a clear economic vision, sidesteps accountability, and prioritizes political balancing over substantive policy commitments. With the country in deep crisis, this approach risks reinforcing stagnation rather than driving much-needed change. Read more

منظّمات تدعو هيئة مكافحة الفساد للتدقيق في تصريح سلامة: نحو تفعيل الرقابة على تصاريح الذمة المالية

 

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Reinoud Leenders, TPI senior fellow, unpacks how Lebanon’s power- and resource-sharing became quasi-synonymous, hence long engrained bad governance will not be overcome by ‘reforms’ but by resource depletion. Read more

نداء لحماية الممتلكات الثقافية بعد العدوان الإسرائيلي على لبنان. صادر عن مجموعة من منظمات المجتمع المدني التي تعمل من أجل حماية وتوثيق الأضرار التي لحقت بالممتلكات الثقافية في لبنان (المفكرة القانونية، بلادي، الجنوبيون الخضر، المجلس الثقافي للبنان الجنوبي، نحن،أشغال عامة، مبادرة سياسات الغد، مؤسسة الجادرجي للعمارة والمجتمع، اللقاء العمراني).

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Lebanon’s political establishment often touts ministerial rotation, factional exclusion, and the appointment of technocrats as the keys to reform. Are these proposed solutions genuine—or merely cosmetic gestures that uphold systemic corruption? Our latest article provides a critical examination of these narratives and details the deeper institutional changes needed to address Lebanon’s entrenched crisis.

Read more

Lebanon’s newly elected President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam bring a glimmer of hope to a nation reeling from crises. But can they overcome entrenched political resistance and institutional decay to deliver meaningful reforms? Our latest analysis dives into the challenges ahead, the forces behind their rise, and what’s at stake for Lebanon’s future.

Read more

Lebanese lawmakers have elected army commander Joseph Aoun as president, ending more than two years of political stalemate in a sign of Hizbollah’s diminished influence in the country following a devastating war with Israel. Interview with Dr. Sami Atallah. Read more

هل يُمكن إصلاح المالية العامة في لبنان؟ وكيف نُعيد توزيع الموارد بشكل عادل؟ في تقريرنا الأخير يطرح كريم ضاهر، نائب رئيسة مجلس الإدارة في مبادرة سياسات الغد، رؤية إصلاحية مالية لمواجهة الأزمات المتفاقمة، ووضع أسس التنمية المستدامة والعدالة الاجتماعية

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As TPI senior fellow Reinoud Leenders warns, after Assad’s fall, Western focus on geopolitics and security threats ignores Syrians' needs, perspectives, and agency —risking erasure from their own revolution’s future. Read more

As the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah holds, Lebanon begins to face reconstruction. But the fragile truce and the country's economic crisis are hampering efforts. Interview with Dr. Sami Atallah. Read more

Lebanon’s capital was hit hard by bombing and an influx of displaced people but residents are rebuilding their lives. Read more

Lebanese villages hit by Israeli attacks amid fragile truce
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In TPI's latest article, Mona Khechen calls for holding Israel accountable for its environmental crimes and emphasizes the need to recognize ecocide as an international crime. While Israel promotes itself as a climate leader, it is committing an ecocide by targeting infrastructure, agricultural land, and natural resources in Lebanon and Gaza.

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United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Jordan’s Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, on Friday in London, where the Arab leader accused Israel of engaging in ethnic cleansing in Gaza. "International pressure is the quickest way to end the misery" for Lebanon and Israel says Sami Atallah, founding director, the Policy Initiative is on FRANCE 24. Read more

نداء بشأن إشغال النازحين/ات المساحات العامة. صادر عن عدد من الجمعيات والمنظمات والمبادرات.

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Can the Rio G20 Summit address climate change and human rights while ignoring the wars waged on Gaza and Lebanon? Our latest article by Mona Khechen and Sami Atallah discusses the need for the G20 to address both issues with urgency and commitment. Read more

Dr. Sami Atallah was interviewed by the Financial Times. Read more

The EU's stance on Lebanon has become increasingly hypocritical, where on one hand, it provides aid to Lebanon, but on the other, enables Israel's current rampage in the country. This puts the EU's self proclaimed partnership with Lebanon in doubt.   Read more

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Interview with Sami Zoughaib. Read more

Interview with Sami Zoughaib. Read more

The Policy Initiative's Sami Zoghaib tells @SkyYaldaHakim that Hezbollah have been able to "regroup" despite sustaining " a significant blow" from Israel. Read more

The massive attack on Hezbollah's communication equipment spread death and terror in Beirut. “This is like a dystopian horror movie where we are the actors,” says Lebanese economist Sami Zoughaib. Read more

Sami Zoughaib discusses the preparedness of the Lebanese state for a potential war with Israel.

Read more

In this article, Sami Zoughaib and Sami Atallah delve into the critical fiscal reforms necessary for Lebanon's National Social Protection Strategy (NSPS), which was launched in February 2024.  Read more

“Climate, land, and rights: The quest for social and environmental justice in the Arab region” is a new collaborative research project launched by The Policy Initiative (TPI) that explores the intersectionality of the climate emergency, land governance, and the broader challenges of democratic and inclusive governance in the Arab region.  Read more

TPI was cited in the article “IMF Executive Director to Mikati: There is no inclination to cancel the signed agreement with Lebanon” posted at the L’Orient Today. Read more

TPI was cited in the article “Chami: Lebanon still not close to unlocking IMF deal two years since staff-level agreement” posted at the L’Orient Today.

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The Policy Initiative is launching "Climate, Land, and Rights: The Quest for Social and Environmental Justice in the Arab Region" – a collaborative research project that unfolds the intricate layers of land governance, rights, and the climate crisis in Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt, and Jordan.

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In our latest report, Wassim Maktabi, Sami Zoughaib, Sami Atallah, and Najib Zoghaib scrutinize Lebanon's governance challenges. They examine both the state's unmet reform promises and its actual legislative actions and highlight how misaligned priorities and narrow interests continue to hinder progressive policymaking.

Read more

The 'Change Bloc' in Lebanon's Parliament, formed following the May 2022 parliamentary elections, encountered significant hurdles, including internal divisions and strategic disagreements, eventually leading to its collapse. This article unveils the main factors behind this downfall through highlighting the differences in their political visions and exploring how these challenges impacted the bloc's cohesion and effectiveness.

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سامي عطالله: الطرح خاطئ وخطير... فالأصول العامة لكل اللبنانيين وليست للمودعين فقط لا سيما كبارهم Read more

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Our latest report by Nadim El Kak investigates the hurdles encountered by Lebanon's "Change MPs" during their initial 18 months in office. It details their legislative performance, oversight duties, parliamentary alliances, and political outlooks. Based on interviews with eight Change MPs, the report offers insights into their daily experiences, strategies, and internal dynamics. It also examines the broader landscape of Lebanon's opposition movements, highlighting observed differences and rifts among Change actors. The report outlines the challenges faced by Change MPs in implementing reforms and ensuring governmental accountability, highlighting the obstructionism of sectarian parties and its impact on parliamentary processes. In their interviews, Change MPs share how they actively engaged in actions such as uncovering corruption, halting questionable government contracts, and advocating for reforms amidst Lebanon's deepening crisis.

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TPI was cited at AGBI, covering our article "Economic Impact of the War in Lebanon: Real and potential losses". Read more

TPI was cited in the article “As Lebanon teeters on the edge, a war with Israel would be catastrophic” posted at The Washington Post. Read more

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TPI published an estimate of the losses and other potential future costs suffered by Lebanon as a result of the war spillover into south Lebanon. Read more

The war in Lebanon triggered by Israel’s onslaught on Gaza, risks further escalation threatening the country’s already crumbling economy. Since October 8, 2023, Israel launched 2,600 strikes on Lebanon, within 10 km of its southern border, affecting the country’s vital foreign capital inflow. Our latest article by Sami Zoughaib, Wassim Maktabi, and Sami Atallah provides insights into the war's economic implications. With the cost of war so high, it is imperative is for the international community actors to push for an immediate stop to the Israeli war on Gaza, which would not only offer a pathway to reducing tensions but also mitigate the increasing humanitarian and economic losses across the region. Read more

The 2022 Lebanese parliamentary elections were a pivotal moment for the country, marked by a significant public demand for change following the 2019 uprising. Despite its transformative potential, Lebanon remains at a political standstill, with the 2022 election results yet to be translated into forming a government and electing a president. What makes the 2022 elections different from previous ones is the unprecedented diaspora mobilization. Compared to 2018, their participation tripled, affecting the election outcome for seven candidates, including five anti-establishment ones. Yet, the true power of their vote is still to be fully realized. Remittances, investments, and expertise are key to navigating the economic crisis, making the diaspora’s involvement in political processes even more significant.

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مقابلة مع الدكتور سامي عطاالله. عطالله: السياسيون والمصرفيون شركاء بالتكافل والتضامن ولا يريدون إصلاحاً حقيقياً بل يمعنون في تدفيع كل المجتمع الثمن الباهظ Read more

مقال لسامي زغيب ووسيم مكتبي Read more

Sami Zoughaib was interviewed by The New Arab. Read more

مقابلة مع سامي زغيب Read more

Sami Zoughaib was interviewed by l'Orient Today. Read more

مقابلة عبر الهاتف مع الدكتور سامي عطاالله - برنامج نقطة على السطر - هل يسمح بعد تحميل المواطن أعباء إضافية في موازنة 2024؟ Read more

انتهت لجنة المال والموازنة في 15 كانون الثاني/يناير من وضع تعديلاتها على مشروع قانون موازنة 2024، الذي أرسل إلى البرلمان في 28 أيلول/سبتمبر الماضي، بعد أسبوعين من اعتماده في مجلس الوزراء في 12 أيلول/سبتمبر 2023. وعقدت جلسة عامة للبرلمان في 24 كانون الثاني/يناير 2024 لإقرارها قبل نهاية كانون الثاني/يناير، وهذا ما يعرقل إمكانية اعتماد الموازنة بمرسوم، كما كانت تمهد الحكومة. Read more

As Lebanon's Parliament votes on the 2024 budget, glaring tax inequities take center stage. This article by Sami Zoughaib and Georgia Dagher reveals how the proposed taxes disproportionately burden lower-income groups, while sparing wealthier segments. We explore three critical areas - real estate, imports, and debt settlements - where tax loopholes have led to staggering revenue losses and exacerbated wealth disparities. Urgent reforms are needed for a fairer, more equitable tax system.

Read more

War spillover hampers Lebanon's tepid economic growth, while inflation remains in triple digits. Read more

The 2024 budget draft in Lebanon is making headlines. The budget is set to break a two-decade-long trend by being ratified without violating the budget calendar. The finance and budget committee transformed a fiscal deficit into a surplus mainly through accounting gimmicks. However, if Parliament fails to ratify the budget by January 31, the cabinet's version, which also lacks reforms and diverges from standard financial practices, will be implemented. With the Parliament discussions reported to be very heated, the country is facing a dilemma as neither version of the budget serves the people, yet one must be adopted. Read more

Sami Zoughaib was interviewed by Middle East Eye. Read more

As Lebanon enters its fifth year of the crisis, the labor market has become increasingly precarious. Irregular jobs are the new norm and are functioning as an informal safety net among the country’s remaining labor force. Widespread wage reductions and inadequate social protection have rendered the labor market increasingly informal and low-skilled. A normalization of this arrangement can carry reverberations that sever the role of the state in the social contract. Read more

Lebanon's 2024 draft budget reflects persisting fiscal mismanagement, signaling ongoing concerns for economic recovery and social stability. The budget heavily relies on VAT, disproportionately burdening the less affluent, adding strain on small and medium enterprises, and favoring the interests of the wealthy. Despite proposed budget increases, essential service ministries, such as public health, education, and social affairs, remain underfunded, threatening societal well-being.

Read more

Our report with Towards_Fairwork Lebanon rates working conditions at 6 of the biggest platforms in the country's food delivery and ride-hailing sectors: Bolt, Gozilla, Indrive, TaxiF, Toters, and Uber. The report constitutes the first in-depth overview of working conditions in Lebanon’s platform economy, in a country battling multiple crises. None of the platforms assessed in this year’s study were granted any points for the five principles of fair work.

Read more

Lebanese farmers have cultivated cannabis for generations, yet no permits have been issued in a century despite Lebanon’s 1964 law mandating state permits for medical cannabis cultivation. The missed opportunity? A delay in tapping into foreign markets, impacting potential foreign currency inflow. Read our recent in-depth piece by Jamal Ibrahim Haidar, Hussein Zeaiter, and Salem Darwich exploring the prospects and hurdles and outlining crucial steps for exporting high-quality cannabis for medicinal purposes. Read more

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Lebanon's 2023 budget draft minimizes the tax burden on those with capital and wealth, forcing the low and middle-income classes to foot the bill. In our latest article, we examine the revenue structure of Lebanon's overdue 2023 budget draft and find it to be consistent with previous years of relying heavily on regressive taxation, which is threatening the state’s overall fiscal capacity. Read more

In our latest article, we examine the poorly designed expenditure structure in Lebanon's 2023 Draft Budget. The analysis reveals how the significant delays in budget preparation have made it obsolete, and the shrinking budget size, which has plummeted even more than the economy during the ongoing crisis. The article also highlights the disproportionate allocation of resources, primarily in favor of sovereign ministries over crucial service-oriented ones, and the prevalence of personnel costs in the budget, despite being insufficient. These findings underscore the pressing need for fiscal reform and a more responsible approach to public spending in Lebanon.

Read more

Read more

Sami Zoughaib is featured in this article on elites escaping IMF reforms as it would threaten them and are instead relying on the "booming" tourism sector. Read more

In partnership with Sami Kassir Foundation, our recent report exposes Lebanon's media reliance on elites for funding, hence shaping the public narrative. Across TV stations, radio outlets, and print sources, we unveil how the support of political groups fuels polarization and distorts public opinion. Analyzing costs, revenues, and informal funds, our study emphasizes the media's dependence on politically motivated backing. 

Read more

In a joint statement with Think Tanks and Research Centers, we highlight our key responses to the IMF's Lebanon Article IV report.  Read more

Sami Zoughaib comments on the tourism sector amidst the ongoing crisis and political paralysis Read more

Sami Atallah comments on the dollarization in the country. Read more

Hussein Cheaito joins a a virtual panel discussion on how Lebanon’s economy can be reinvigorated and reimagined to be meaningfully productive. Read more

Sami Atallah provides insight on the presidential election Read more

Lebanon’s decision makers are not interested in the reforms required to access IMF financing and are even sabotaging negotiations. Read more

Sami Zoughaib and Sam Heller, from Century International, reveal how Lebanon’s elites have misled the public on the reality of the country’s dire situation. Read more

In a collaborative effort by Sam Heller, Century International, Sami Zoughaib, The Policy Initiative, our latest report, which draws upon interviews with Lebanese officials, politicians, civil society leaders, and representatives of donor countries and international institutions, highlights the critical role of public pressure in compelling elites to act responsibly and holding them accountable. Lebanon's economic collapse can only be stopped with an urgent IMF program and comprehensive reforms. However, IMF talks have stalled primarily due to a disconnect between the country's weak negotiating team and its hegemonic anti-reform political elites. Disinformation has further exacerbated the situation, distorting political discourse and misleading the public. Instead of working with the IMF to implement the needed reforms, the country's political elites are pursuing a clandestine “shadow” plan. This plan would shift the economic burden onto the Lebanese people, leading to widespread suffering.

Read more

 Country was grappling with a leadership vacuum and an economic collapse even before the arrest warrants for Riad Salameh Read more

As a key recipient of international aid, Lebanon is no stranger to pledging reforms. In fact, its ruling political class are experts in promising reforms but not in delivering them. Read more

Sami Zoughaib discusses why politics is critical for understanding social assistance in Lebanon.  Read more

The authors critique the "Lebanon Economic Vision" report in four points Read more

The authors latest article in the series on Lebanon’s history of foreign assistance, analyzes the distribution of international assistance to Lebanon by donor and sector.

 

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Sami Atallah discusses recent findings about loans and grants  Read more

TPI fellows Jamal Ibrahim Haidar and Adeel Malik explore how tax incentives could be used to create job opportunities, produce high quality products, increase economic output, and efficiently utilize savings in the absence of a functioning banking sector. Read more

The authors examine how Lebanon's development aid has changed over five distinct periods since 1990.They find that aid patterns reflect both external dynamics, such as regional conflicts and global crises, and internal dynamics, such as domestic politics and governance capacity. Read more

Sami Zoughaib discusses the recent dollarization and its impact  Read more

Sami Zoughaib comments on Lebanon's tax system and the implications of exchange rate modifications Read more

Sami Atallah participates in the Lebanese National Convention discussing incentives and controls for the Lebanese economy Read more

In our most recent report, Georgia Dagher, Sami Atallah, Wassim Maktabi, and Zeina Helou highlight deficiencies in the electoral system and political candidates’ strategies that hampered the competitiveness and fairness of the electoral race.  
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Hussein Cheaito comments on Lebanon's official exchange rate and the dollarization  Read more

Sami Atallah comments on Judge Bitar's efforts amidst developments in Beirut Blast probe Read more

Sami Atallah speaks about the latest developments in the Beirut Blast probe Read more

Sami Zoughaib offers insight on Lebanon's new exchange rate  Read more

Hussein Cheaito comments on the roots and implications of social and economic inequality in Lebanon Read more

Revenue collection declined to 6.6 percent of GDP in 2021, among the lowest rates in the world. It’s barely enough for core functions, and the 2022 budget shows no sign of improvement. Read more

A deep financial crisis in Lebanon has pushed 80 per cent of the population into poverty. There's political deadlock, and a powerless caretaker government. So why is it failing? Read more

يتحدث سامي زغيب عن مسار الأزمة في لبنان وواقع السياسات الإقتصادية والإجتماعية في لبنان  Read more

Sami Zoughaib and Wassim Maktabi examine how BdL was effectively “subcontracted” as a social assistance provider through an ill-conceived exchange rate subsidy operation that depleted its foreign reserves and regressively benefited large importers and wealthier cash holders. Meanwhile, a fraction of the amount depleted could have funded a social protection floor estimated to cost around $500 million annually. Read more

Wassim Maktabi, Sami Zoughaib, and Sami Atallah investigate how the delay in the ESSN was linked to attempts of the political class to capture the program, played off as “administrative blunders”. Read more

Hussein Cheaito describes and comments on Lebanon's current political situation amidst the financial crisis and presidential and governmental vacuum  Read more

In TPI’s latest article, Sophie Bloemeke and Mona Harb examine three interconnected sets of structural constraints that limit the performance of the 3RF Read more

Sami Zoughaib discusses detrimental effects of the current social protection landscape on the social contract in Lebanon. Read more

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Sami Atallah provides commentary on the maritime border deal and its implications for Lebanon Read more

Sami Atallah highlights the agreement's shortcomings, unpacks how Lebanese leaders mismanaged the demarcation of the maritime border, and Hezbollah's nuanced position over the agreement. Read more

As the Border Demarcation agreement as been settled, Sami Atallah comments on Hezbollah's stance  Read more

In our latest article on the Lebanese parliamentary elections, Wassim Maktabi looks at how Lebanon’s political elites controlled the state’s policy attention in the run-up to the elections. Read more

What strategies did Lebanese political parties employ to win voters over? Read more

Sami Atallah comments on Hezbollah's role in the Lebanon - Israel deal Read more

This article investigates the effect of ministerial rotations on legislative output. Read more

Sami Zoughaib discusses the need for social protection and the IMF agreement.  Read more

Lebanon's Rigged Budget translated to Arabic by Ak Akhbar Read more

Watch on as Sami Atallah discusses Local Economic Development and Municipal Responses amid the financial crisis Read more

Wassim Maktabi comments on the governments latest decisions amidst the financial crisis, noting the government's exception of banks from bearing losses. Read more

In this piece on Tracy Chamoun, Sami Atallah offers some insight on the election of a president in Lebanon Read more

Sami Zoughaib and Cynthia Saghir explore Lebanon’s fragmented and ineffective social insurance system Read more

Sami Atallah and Sami Zoughaib take a closer look at Lebanon’s 2022 budget, which has been passed last week, more than halfway into the year. 
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Translation of TPI's Cartels in Infrastructure study by Nidaa Al Watan Read more

Director Sami Atallah discusses the financial crisis, struggle with political accountability, and where change might come from Read more

Hussein Cheaito comments on the illegal implementation of capital control laws at the expense of the people Read more

Hussein Cheaito comments on the recent series of bank heists as depositors ask for their money back Read more

Hussein Cheaito comments on recent events in Lebanon, including illegal capital control on citizen's money and the lack of accountability  Read more

Sami Atallah comments on recent events in Lebanon amidst the economic crisis as people still do not have access to their life savings.  Read more

Sami Zoughaib discusses the banking sector and the rightful acts of depositors to forcibly get their money back Read more

Powerful players are interested in blocking the law’s implementation, but advocates for financial reform say they will ensure that doesn't happen. Read more

Mounir Mahmalat and Wassim Maktabi study cartels in public infrastructure procurement and analyze the conditions under which they succeed in generating rents Read more

Translation of How Cartels Work to French in L'Orient Le Jour Read more

Mounir Mahmalat and Wassim Maktabi share the findings on how political elites use public infrastructure procurement to generate rents with a focus on design and supervision consultants involved in several of The Council of Development and Reconstruction's projects

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Cynthia Saghir and Wassim Maktabi echo the need for a rights-based social protection system bound by an orderly fiscal framework Read more

How does Lebanon’s current electoral law fall short of being representative?

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In light of the country’s accumulating crises, the importance of adopting the National Social Protection Strategy (NSPS), the grounds for a rights-based social protection system, has become crucial.  Read more

Cynthia Saghir comments on the reality of social protection amidst the ongoing wheat shortage in Lebanon Read more

Hussein Cheaito comments on the world's wheat supply and how it has left Lebanon's already food-insecure population in much worse shape Read more

Hussein Cheaito offers commentary on the wheat crisis in Lebanon and draws parallels between Lebanon and Sri Lanka despite different geographies and systems. Read more

Sami Zoughaib and Hussein Cheaito discuss tourism revenues and remittances on Al Jadeed  Read more

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Daraj Media's coverage on TPI's video and article around bank spending on media advertisement. Read more

Al Akhbar's translation of TPI's article: Tourism and remittances are not a panacea for Lebanon's financial woes Read more

Al Modon covers TPI's video and article discussing how banks utilize traditional media for their benefit.  Read more

Sami Zoughaib discusses the economic and financial crisis in light of the protests of Srilanka  Read more

The authors take a closer look at the value of advertisement slots that banks purchased on a yearly basis and their implications  Read more

Hussein Cheaito and Sami Zoughaib take a closer look at the two major sources of foreign capital - remittances and tourism revenues - and how they have contributed to further inequality and non-investment in Lebanon, as the country sinks deeper into the financial and economic crisis Read more

The authors assess the “response” of government, parliament, central bank, and the judiciary to the financial crisis Read more

Development economist and nonresident fellow at TIMEP, Hussein Cheaito, unpacks the struggles faced by the LGBTQ+ community in Lebanon amidst multiple crises Read more

TIMEP hosted development economist Hussein Cheaito to discuss the state of LGBTQ+ community amidst multiple crises.  Read more

Georgia Dagher and Sami Zoughaib dive deeper into Lebanon's social crisis and the ways forward.  Read more

TPI's Hussein Cheaito comments on the Sovereign Wealth Fund.  Read more

Senior fellow Mona Khechen discusses the protection of state-owned lands Read more

Hussein Cheaito comments on Nabih Berri's re-election for the 7th time. Read more

TPI’s Sami Zoughaib and Wassim Maktabi offer a reading of the current trajectory of the financial crisis and its outlook in light of recent political developments.

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Sami Atallah gives commentary on the newly elected parliament and the role of the opposition in changing political dynamics Read more

Director Sami Atallah offers further insight into the Lebanese elections and their aftermath Read more

Sami Zoughaib discusses elections during his appearance on Al Araby  Read more

Director Sami Atallah breaks down the newly elected parliament and tackles the challenges facing the opposition. Read more

Nadim El Kak comments on Lebanon's oppositionist scene in the buildup to the 2022 parliamentary elections. Read more

Director Sami Atallah and fellow Christiana Parreira take a closer look at Lebanon's opposition as elections near. Read more

With growing disinterest in the ruling political parties, Tripoli sees the potential for new faces, although opposition lists lack clear political programs Read more

Sami Zoughaib comments on clientelism and vote-buying ahead of the parliamentary elections  Read more

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TPI fellow Christiana Parreira dissects the lead up to the May 2022 parliamentary elections Read more

Georgia Dagher from The Policy Initiative comments on the role of the Lebanese diaspora in swinging the vote in favor of opposition parties. Read more

While no recent figures on the diaspora’s political leanings exist, a look at their choices in the 2018 elections—when out of country voting was introduced—shows that they did not vote as one homogeneous bloc, and that their votes had no marginal impact.

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Director Sami Atallah's editorial and opening word on the launch of The Policy Initiative Read more

As the 2022 out of country voting for the Lebanese parliamentary elections begins on May 6 and 8, The Policy Initiative, in collaboration with the Arab Reform Initiative, examined the Lebanese diaspora’s voting patterns in the 2018 parliamentary elections in order to understand their potential impact on the upcoming elections.  Read more

Sami Zoughaib comments on the capital controls law amidst negotiations with the IMF. Read more

Fifteen key alternative political groups, which were established before summer 2021, were selected for this study based on their party-like structure and opposition to the political establishment Read more

Director Sami Atallah comments on the upcoming Lebanese elections, accountability, and the deal with the IMF during his appearance on Voice of Lebanon on April 25th. Read more

Director Sami Atallah gives commentary on the International Monetary Fund deal with Lebanon amidst the economic crisis. Read more

Cynthia Saghir provides commentary on the topic of refugees in Lebanon Read more

Our research on how municipalities have interacted with the IMPACT platform shows that some had frequented forms that carried short-term incentives over others that did not, leaving an inconsistent interaction with the platform. Read more

Traditional political parties controlling municipalities submit, on average, significantly more aid applications relative to their populations than family-run or independent municipalities. Read more

Transparency is an important part of governance as it allows citizens to hold their elected local governments accountable. Our research shows that in Lebanon, membership in union of municipalities seem to shape municipalities’ transparency more than other factors. Read more

Encouraging and building on a culture of transparency within public administrations therefore should be a first step to improve governance and restore people's trust in the State. Read more

Data on the submissions of aid applications through the IMPACT platform provides empirical evidence of how political parties attempt to exploit this situation. Read more

Lebanon’s current decentralization system offers important opportunities for local governments to take over a leadership role for the improvement of services, infrastructure, and people’s welfare. Read more

Out of the country’s 1,002 municipalities, only 17 received the full score and showed near full transparency and regular interaction with the IMPACT platform. Read more

Neighboring municipalities exchange information and seem to influence each other in their usage of the IMPACT platform. Read more

Sami Atallah, founding director of TPI, discussed with the Financial Times the Riad Salameh controversy and it epitomizes the rottenness of Lebanon’s political system. Read more

A detailed assessment of local economic development focusing on economic activity, human capital, government policy and territorial dynamics in the three regions. Read more

TPI director Sami Atallah discussed Lebanon's upcoming election with Roya TV and how the government's actions aim to serve the political elites getting elected. Read more

L'Orient-Le Jour interviewed Georgia Dagher, TPI Political Researcher, on predictions for the 2022 parliamentary elections based on her extensive research and data she collected and analyzed for the 2018 elections. Read more

TPI economist Sami Zoughaib commented on Riad Salemeh's active role in Lebanon's collapse, in light of judicial actions against the central bank governor Read more

Mounir Mahmalat, senior economist, presented a TPI paper published by the team's researchers on resource sharing in Lebanon, at the American Economic Association Conference. Read more

TPI director Sami Atallah shared his thoughts with L'Orient-Le Jour on Lebanon’s political situation, confessionalism, legislative elections expectations, the role of political emergent groups, and the financial situation. Read more

TPI researcher Nadim El Kak was a speaker at The Democratic Economy conference addressing the role and challenges facing Lebanon's alternative labor movement. Read more

Political researcher Georgia Dagher gave her expert view to L'Orient-Le Jour on what to expect of the diaspora vote for the parliamentary election, based on her extensive research on the 2018 elections. Read more

Georgia Dagher, TPI researcher and elections expert, provided her analysis on the alliances between the opposition candidates in the upcoming 2022 parliamentary elections. Read more

TPI founding director and head of research Sami Atallah was a guest on LBC's economic and political talk show Vision 2030 hosted by Albert Kostanian. Read more

Sami Zoughaib, economist at TPI, commented on the diplomatic tension between the Gulf and Lebanon. He discussed how Lebanon's economic resilience and well-being should be the state's duty, and not other countries' responsibility. Read more

Sami Zoughaib, economist at TPI, gave a presentation during UNICEF retreat on the financial crisis in Lebanon and how its origins lie in the political economy model of the country. Read more

Economist Sami Zoughaib was interviewed by TRT World to discuss the Saudi-Lebanese feud over the comments of minister of information Georges Kordahi, and analyze the relations both countries have had in the past years. Read more

Researcher Nadim El Kak wrote an opinion article published by The Public Source on Lebanon's anti-establishment movement, strategies of political change, and broader reflections on organizing against the neoliberal status quo. Read more

Sami Atallah, founding director of TPI, commented on the Hezbollah-brokered Iranian fuel convoys which aimed to alleviate some of Lebanon's fuel shortage and score political points. He discussed the role of the ruling elite in the financial crisis and Hezbollah's political patronage and institutional clientelism. Read more

TPI researcher and economist Sami Zoughaib commented on the fuel imports of Hezbollah from Iran. Read more

TPI director Sami Atallah was interviewed by TRT World on the formation of a government by prime minister Najib Mikati, believing that it would be naive to think that the new cabinet, made of political loyalists only, would be able to change the situation in Lebanon, as they are set to protect the elites' stronghold on the country's politics and finances. Read more

Economist Sami Zoughaib was featured by Al Jazeera English, discussing the cash card program launched by the Lebanese government and the lack of accountability and transparency measure to ensure they go to the right people in need and not be used for electoral purposes. Read more

Sami Zoughaib, economist at The Policy Initiative, discussed with Middle East Eye Lebanon's fuel crisis and how there would be no solution in sight for the problem without a viable and independent state and judiciary institutions that would ensure proper oversight and rule of law. Read more

TPI's development economist Hussein Cheaito shared his comments with The Media Line on Lebanon's fuel crisis, sparked by the financial meltdown and the country's cycle of debt. Read more

At the one year commemoration of the Beirut blast, TPI founding director Sami Atallah discussed with TRT World the political and financial establishment's role and deliberate actions blocking solutions to Lebanon's worsening crises. Read more

Senior research Mounir Mahmalat was interviewed by the German broadcasting channel WDR on Lebanon's economic crisis and reasons for rising inflation. Read more

TPI economist Sami Zoughaib was interviewed by Al-Jazeera English on the sanction framework adopted by the EU against Lebanon's ruling elite over the country's political crisis. Read more

TPI economist and researcher Sami Zoughaib discussed Lebanon's political crisis and paralysis and how the country's current political system cannot produce a government with the interest of people at heart. Read more

The New Arab outlet talked to TPI economist Sami Zoughaib on the decline of livelihoods in Lebanon and the lack of access to basic goods. Read more

Sami Zoughaib took part to a webinar organized by the Prague Centre for Middle East Relations, and he presented on the financial crisis in Lebanon and how its origins lie in the political economy model of the country. Read more

The Lebanese Politics Podcast hosts Ben Redd and Timour Azhari interviewed TPI economist Sami Zoughaib to discuss social protection in Lebanon and the World Bank's loan for the Emergency Social Safety Net. Read more

TPI economist Sami Zoughaib wrote an article discussing the 3RF conditional aid program and the likelihood of its success given the past experience of Lebanese governments with conditional aid platforms. Read more