Senior fellow Mona Khechen discusses the protection of state-owned lands Read more

The authors assess the “response” of government, parliament, central bank, and the judiciary to the financial crisis Read more

Mounir Mahmalat and Wassim Maktabi share the findings on how political elites use public infrastructure procurement to generate rents with a focus on design and supervision consultants involved in several of The Council of Development and Reconstruction's projects

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Mounir Mahmalat and Wassim Maktabi study cartels in public infrastructure procurement and analyze the conditions under which they succeed in generating rents Read more

Sami Atallah and Sami Zoughaib take a closer look at Lebanon’s 2022 budget, which has been passed last week, more than halfway into the year. 
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Sami Atallah highlights the agreement's shortcomings, unpacks how Lebanese leaders mismanaged the demarcation of the maritime border, and Hezbollah's nuanced position over the agreement. Read more

In a collaborative effort by Sam Heller, Century International, Sami Zoughaib, The Policy Initiative, our latest report, which draws upon interviews with Lebanese officials, politicians, civil society leaders, and representatives of donor countries and international institutions, highlights the critical role of public pressure in compelling elites to act responsibly and holding them accountable. Lebanon's economic collapse can only be stopped with an urgent IMF program and comprehensive reforms. However, IMF talks have stalled primarily due to a disconnect between the country's weak negotiating team and its hegemonic anti-reform political elites. Disinformation has further exacerbated the situation, distorting political discourse and misleading the public. Instead of working with the IMF to implement the needed reforms, the country's political elites are pursuing a clandestine “shadow” plan. This plan would shift the economic burden onto the Lebanese people, leading to widespread suffering.

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In a joint statement with Think Tanks and Research Centers, we highlight our key responses to the IMF's Lebanon Article IV report.  Read more

In our latest article, we examine the poorly designed expenditure structure in Lebanon's 2023 Draft Budget. The analysis reveals how the significant delays in budget preparation have made it obsolete, and the shrinking budget size, which has plummeted even more than the economy during the ongoing crisis. The article also highlights the disproportionate allocation of resources, primarily in favor of sovereign ministries over crucial service-oriented ones, and the prevalence of personnel costs in the budget, despite being insufficient. These findings underscore the pressing need for fiscal reform and a more responsible approach to public spending in Lebanon.

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Lebanon's 2023 budget draft minimizes the tax burden on those with capital and wealth, forcing the low and middle-income classes to foot the bill. In our latest article, we examine the revenue structure of Lebanon's overdue 2023 budget draft and find it to be consistent with previous years of relying heavily on regressive taxation, which is threatening the state’s overall fiscal capacity. Read more

Lebanon's 2024 draft budget reflects persisting fiscal mismanagement, signaling ongoing concerns for economic recovery and social stability. The budget heavily relies on VAT, disproportionately burdening the less affluent, adding strain on small and medium enterprises, and favoring the interests of the wealthy. Despite proposed budget increases, essential service ministries, such as public health, education, and social affairs, remain underfunded, threatening societal well-being.

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The 2024 budget draft in Lebanon is making headlines. The budget is set to break a two-decade-long trend by being ratified without violating the budget calendar. The finance and budget committee transformed a fiscal deficit into a surplus mainly through accounting gimmicks. However, if Parliament fails to ratify the budget by January 31, the cabinet's version, which also lacks reforms and diverges from standard financial practices, will be implemented. With the Parliament discussions reported to be very heated, the country is facing a dilemma as neither version of the budget serves the people, yet one must be adopted. Read more

انتهت لجنة المال والموازنة في 15 كانون الثاني/يناير من وضع تعديلاتها على مشروع قانون موازنة 2024، الذي أرسل إلى البرلمان في 28 أيلول/سبتمبر الماضي، بعد أسبوعين من اعتماده في مجلس الوزراء في 12 أيلول/سبتمبر 2023. وعقدت جلسة عامة للبرلمان في 24 كانون الثاني/يناير 2024 لإقرارها قبل نهاية كانون الثاني/يناير، وهذا ما يعرقل إمكانية اعتماد الموازنة بمرسوم، كما كانت تمهد الحكومة. Read more

As Lebanon's Parliament votes on the 2024 budget, glaring tax inequities take center stage. This article by Sami Zoughaib and Georgia Dagher reveals how the proposed taxes disproportionately burden lower-income groups, while sparing wealthier segments. We explore three critical areas - real estate, imports, and debt settlements - where tax loopholes have led to staggering revenue losses and exacerbated wealth disparities. Urgent reforms are needed for a fairer, more equitable tax system.

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In our latest report, Wassim Maktabi, Sami Zoughaib, Sami Atallah, and Najib Zoghaib scrutinize Lebanon's governance challenges. They examine both the state's unmet reform promises and its actual legislative actions and highlight how misaligned priorities and narrow interests continue to hinder progressive policymaking.

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In April 2024, the Lebanese State issued 101 legislative texts, yet none introduced the much-needed reforms. Read more

In May 2024, the Lebanese state issued 128 legislative texts, but none addressed the critical reforms the country urgently needs. 

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In June 2024, the Lebanese state issued 151 legislative texts, yet failed to address crucial reforms.

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In July 2024, the Lebanese state issued 144 legislative texts, yet none of the crucial reforms were addressed. Read more

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نداء بشأن إشغال النازحين/ات المساحات العامة. صادر عن عدد من الجمعيات والمنظمات والمبادرات.

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هل يُمكن إصلاح المالية العامة في لبنان؟ وكيف نُعيد توزيع الموارد بشكل عادل؟ في تقريرنا الأخير يطرح كريم ضاهر، نائب رئيسة مجلس الإدارة في مبادرة سياسات الغد، رؤية إصلاحية مالية لمواجهة الأزمات المتفاقمة، ووضع أسس التنمية المستدامة والعدالة الاجتماعية

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Lebanon’s newly elected President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam bring a glimmer of hope to a nation reeling from crises. But can they overcome entrenched political resistance and institutional decay to deliver meaningful reforms? Our latest analysis dives into the challenges ahead, the forces behind their rise, and what’s at stake for Lebanon’s future.

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Lebanon’s political establishment often touts ministerial rotation, factional exclusion, and the appointment of technocrats as the keys to reform. Are these proposed solutions genuine—or merely cosmetic gestures that uphold systemic corruption? Our latest article provides a critical examination of these narratives and details the deeper institutional changes needed to address Lebanon’s entrenched crisis.

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نداء لحماية الممتلكات الثقافية بعد العدوان الإسرائيلي على لبنان. صادر عن مجموعة من منظمات المجتمع المدني التي تعمل من أجل حماية وتوثيق الأضرار التي لحقت بالممتلكات الثقافية في لبنان (المفكرة القانونية، بلادي، الجنوبيون الخضر، المجلس الثقافي للبنان الجنوبي، نحن،أشغال عامة، مبادرة سياسات الغد، مؤسسة الجادرجي للعمارة والمجتمع، اللقاء العمراني).

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Despite a unique opportunity to chart a new course, Lebanon’s ministerial statement lacks a clear economic vision, sidesteps accountability, and prioritizes political balancing over substantive policy commitments. With the country in deep crisis, this approach risks reinforcing stagnation rather than driving much-needed change. Read more

In January 2025, as the parliament elected Joseph Aoun as president and appointed Nawaf Salam as prime minister, the outgoing cabinet stepped up both its routine and regulatory work. The Lebanese state issued 187 legislative texts, the highest number of texts in the last 12 months —mostly licenses and contribution approvals to public institutions— while regulating the Public Procurement Authority and enacting compulsory electronic tax filing.  Read more

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In our latest article, Sami Atallah and Sami Zoughaib argue that Karim Soueid’s appointment reflects elite consensus to block reform and protect banking interests, ending the president’s reform promises just two months into his mandate.

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Lebanon's economic crisis has severely eroded public sector wages, pushing many civil servants into income vulnerability and weakening public institutions. In this report, Sami Zoughaib, Sami Atallah, and Najib Zoghaib analyze the wage crisis and propose a clear pathway toward reform and recovery. They highlight how political elites have avoided structural reforms, resorting instead to temporary fixes that exacerbate inequalities, and how international aid, despite providing crucial short-term relief, increases dependency and undermines national sovereignty. Read more

March 2025 marked the transition from Najib Mikati’s caretaker government to Nawaf Salam’s administration, which took office in late February. Legislative activity during this period dropped to its lowest point in twelve months, with a shift in focus. Specifically, 40% of administrative texts involved new appointments and terminations, while 85% of regulatory texts addressed macroeconomic issues, particularly the approval of the 2025 national budget by decree and preparations for the 2026 budget. For more details, please refer to the monthly memo for the month of March. Read more

In April 2025, the parliament enacted its first reform, amending the banking secrecy law to allow the central bank and auditors to review up to ten years of records. That same month, the government issued and revoked 45 permits for Lebanese to obtain foreign citizenships. It also approved a donation package directed mostly to communities in the South affected by the war and to supporting the Lebanese Armed Forces in the South Litani area. For more details, please refer to the monthly memo for April. Read more

The 2023 Israeli aggression on Lebanon, which escalated into a full-scale war in 2024, exposed the deep erosion of the country’s state institutions. In this report, Sami Atallah, Sami Zoughaib, and Lea Ghandour examine how the state’s failure to declare an emergency, activate disaster plans, or mobilize formal institutions led to a fragmented, donor-dependent, and largely informal response. Read more

Lebanon is caught in the convergence of two failures: a state that abandoned its citizens and a system that normalized sectarian and non-state control. Reconstruction must go beyond repairing damage to reassert state sovereignty, rebuild institutions, mobilize local resources, and restore citizen trust. Read our new article in collaboration with The Legal Agenda and Beirut Urban Lab, authored by Sami Atallah, Mona Fawaz, Nizar Saghieh, and Sami Zoughaib.

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South Lebanon's recovery doesn't have to wait for foreign loans. In our latest article, TPI Fellow Jamal Ibrahim Haidar argues that South Lebanon can rebuild without relying on public funds or foreign loans. With the state bankrupt and aid uncertain, he lays out a bold roadmap where the government acts as facilitator, regulator, and enabler — mobilizing land, legal reforms, cooperatives, diaspora capital, and tourism to drive recovery. Read more

One hundred days into Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s tenure, questions remain over whether his early momentum reflects a break from Lebanon’s entrenched path dependencies. Our latest article examines if his government’s reactivation signals the onset of structural reform or the persistence of institutional stagnation. Read more

In May 2025, the Lebanese state enacted 236 legislative texts - the highest monthly total since the new cabinet took office. Activity was heavily concentrated on approving donations to public institutions to sustain their operations and licensing businesses and organizations, which together accounted for nearly half of all texts issued. Donations approved this month reached the second highest monthly level in nine years. The remaining texts focused on tax extensions and exemptions, cancellation of vocational official exams for this year, promotion of security officers whose previous promotions had been frozen, among others. For more details, please refer to the monthly memo for the month of May.

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Lebanon’s 2026 draft budget masks the deficit, taxes wages over wealth, and lacks a reconstruction plan. A political choice to preserve the status quo. Read our new article by TPI’s authors, Khaled Saad, Sami Atallah and Sami Zoughaib.

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From ‘systemic crisis’ to ‘cash threat’, Lebanon’s financial order is being rebranded to spare those who built it. Banks, Banque du Liban, and foreign actors are aligning around a new security-financial settlement that turns the banking sector into surveillance infrastructure while sidelining loss-sharing and justice for depositors. Read our new piece by Sami Zoughaib and Sami Atallah. Read more

In June 2025, the Lebanese state issued 129 legislative texts, none of which addressed macroeconomic reforms. Most routine measures involved approving roughly $500,000 in contributions, granting licenses to businesses and individuals, authorizing financial transfers, and appointing individuals to positions in public institutions. Regulatory measures, meanwhile, largely centered on macroeconomic issues—particularly taxes and fees. Read more

In July 2025, the Lebanese state issued 196 legislative texts, none of which were classified as reforms. Routine work was dominated by financial transfers from the reserve to public institutions—totaling around $35 million and mostly directed to the Ministry of Defense—alongside licenses to businesses, approvals of contributions to public institutions, and appointments. The remaining regulatory measures mainly focused on taxes, fees, and VAT procedures, alongside public sector employee compensations.

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In August 2025, the Lebanese state issued 176 legislative texts, none of which were reforms that tackle Lebanon’s crisis. Administrative activity was overwhelmingly concentrated in licenses, approvals of contributions, appointments, and financial transfers, which together accounted for about two-thirds of all routine measures. This included roughly $549,000 in in-kind contributions and 12 diplomatic appointments. As for the regulatory measures, they mainly focused on extending three types of taxes and adjusting compensations for public sector employees. Read more

In September 2025, the Lebanese state issued 234 legislative texts. Routine work was dominated by approvals of contributions, licenses, appointments, and financial transfers, which together accounted for roughly 85% of all administrative measures. This included about $10.5 million in in-kind contributions—mostly directed to Électricité du Liban and the Lebanese Army—alongside 52 licenses, most of which went to arms and ammunition trading. At the regulatory level, measures focused primarily on tax adjustments and extensions, alongside allowances for military personnel, without advancing a broader reform agenda. 

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In October 2025, the Lebanese state issued 275 legislative texts, none of which were classified as reforms. Administrative activity dominated (254 texts), with licenses, approvals of contributions, and appointments accounting together for 80% of routine measures. This included $124.7 million in approved in-kind contributions, 86 licenses (of which 50 are for arms and ammunition trading), and 45 appointments, most of them diplomatic. Regulatory texts focused mainly on macroeconomic measures—particularly tax and fee adjustments, alongside foreign trade rules regulating the import and export of certain goods.

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